Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.
With ~20% of the S&P 500’s market cap having reported up to this point, Q3 earnings season has gotten off to a solid start. 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates by an aggregate earnings surprise of 13.3%. While this 13.3% rate is lower than the past five quarters, it is still very strong historically (well above the 5.2% 15-year average) and supportive of fundamental trends. Many companies are citing the difficult environment with the Delta variant’s impact on global supply chains and inflation, but also noting elevated demand. Importantly, since the start of Q3 reports, forward S&P 500 earnings estimates are ticking higher for Q4 2021 and all quarters of 2022. Earnings are the most important driver of equities over the long term, so these positive revision trends are supportive of overall market trends. Looking ahead, earnings season is set to heat up from here with 173 more S&P 500 companies reporting by the end of next week, highlighted by the mega-cap Tech names (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and FB make up 22% of the S&P 500’s market cap and all report next week).
Technically, “buy the pullback” wins again, as the S&P 500 broke above the 50-day moving average and is attempting to push to new highs. The downtrend has now transitioned to a horizontal base- more of a flat/ consolidation pattern than declining pattern, and we view it as a pause within the prevailing uptrend. Odds are the index breaks out to the upside. However, due to uncertainty surrounding the supply chain, Fed action, and inflation (labor market structure), we have a sideways to moderate upward bias over the coming weeks and months. Seasonal factors (Nov-Dec seasonally strong period of the year) and the potential for some clarity over the issues (with Delta past its peak) are next in line to produce the next leg higher. Earnings are the long-term driver of stock prices, and it is reassuring to see a solid start to Q3 earnings season being a key driver of the rally.
Declining Covid cases have supported upside in bond yields over recent weeks, which has significant implications on equity market performance beneath the surface. The improved growth expectations and less risk-off tone (following Delta’s peak), along with the corresponding steeper yield curve, bodes well for the “average stock.” The equal-weight S&P 500 index broke out to new highs yesterday, which not only supports underlying trends for equity markets (improved breadth in the rally) but also supports our positive stance on some of the more economically-sensitive areas. All in all, we recommend positioning portfolios with a diversified but pro-cyclical tilt (continuing to underweight the more interest-sensitive, defensive areas), and using weakness opportunistically.
IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES
This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Links to third-party websites are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or the collection or use of information regarding any websites users and/or members.
This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate, or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic, or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec. 501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.
The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This document is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients.
For clients in France:
This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in "Code Monetaire et Financier" and Reglement General de l'Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
For institutional clients in the European Economic rea (EE ) outside of the United Kingdom:
This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
For Canadian clients:
This document is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.
Broker Dealer Disclosures
Securities are: NOT Deposits • NOT Insured by FDIC or any other government agency • NOT GUARANTEED by the bank • Subject to risk and may lose value
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.